Best Laid Plans and Those Pesky Global Events

In theory, being in government means you control the agenda. In reality, that is not always the case – a reality that is increasingly more common for the Trudeau government after eight years in power. 

Coming out of the Liberal caucus retreat a few weeks ago, it seemed the government was wrestling back control of the agenda after a shaky summer. But just as the winds appeared to be changing, two events, both of which occurred in Canada but reverberated internationally, offered a stark reminder that in politics best-laid plans can quickly go astray.

The first speed bump came with Prime Minister Trudeau’s shocking announcement that government agents from India may have had a hand in the slaying of Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside of the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey, British Columbia in June. The impact of going public with such an accusation was swift. A trade deal with India was put into jeopardy, consular services remained impacted, and an already tense relationship was further strained. It also placed Canada’s allies in an awkward position as many have been propping India up as a potential counterbalance to China.

No sooner was the India episode beginning to fade that Canada was thrust back into the international spotlight, but this time due to a calamitous own goal.

While the invitation to, and recognition of a Nazi veteran during Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s state visit was almost certainly an accident, some accidents are worse than others. From Poland seeking the individual’s extradition, to Jewish groups rightly calling for appropriate apologies, to Russia’s troll farms jumping at a misinformation goldmine, Canada once again found itself in the middle of a geopolitical storm, the second time in as many weeks.

As it was when Canada was managing the Two Michaels crisis, international flare-ups strain a government’s ability to function and operate effectively. Crises not only consume a government’s time, focus, and energy, but divert those valuable resources away from other priorities, including domestic ones – such as managing significant housing and cost of living issues; something Canadians have been clear they want to see more government action on.

While more work is needed to fully heal from this latest episode, the government will eventually move past it, with the election of a new Speaker next week being at least one milestone on the road to moving on. Likewise, the situation with India has for the time being receded from most national headlines and is now being quietly worked on behind the scenes.

And yet the government should be under no illusion that more geopolitical challenges rest over the horizon. First, the combination of a worsening global economy and the Bank of Canada’s unprecedented interest rate rises will lead to real economic pain. Second, the ongoing war in Ukraine will continue to take up valuable bandwidth and continue to put pressure on Canada’s military. And in possibly the biggest wildcard of all, next year’s Presidential election and the possibility of a second Trump Presidency means the recent calm in our most important relationship could come to an abrupt end.

The threat of international affairs acting as a distraction, or worse, for a government trying to win back domestic support is a real one. For Trudeau, the best defence against these known unknowns globally is a good offence locally on bread and butter affordability issues. But after eight years, getting back on the front foot will take more than hope and hard work.