The favourite question of any political consultant or Hill staffer is, “So, who do you think will win the next election?” Having a crystal ball would make answering that question a lot easier (and we’d all make a lot more money), but unfortunately, that’s not possible. The closest thing we politicos and election-watchers have to a crystal ball is a by-election.
Held in an individual riding outside of the usual election cycle to fill a seat left vacated by the sitting MP, the by-election is a prime opportunity for each party to test out its electoral fortunes ahead of a general election. With four by-elections coming up on June 19 —one in Ontario, one in Quebec, and two in Manitoba—parties face an important test as they gear up for a general election that could come any time in the next two years.
For Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, the opportunity to pick up a seat in this round of by-elections is slim. Two of the vacant seats are relatively “safe” Liberal ridings, while the other two are considered safe Conservative seats. With its current standing as the 4th party in the House of Commons, the NDP should be looking to prove that their campaign machine can still put the more dominant parties on defense, and influence the narrative of an election. Mr. Singh’s personal popularity seems to stay relatively consistent despite repeated losses, but that can only last so long without the occasional electoral victory to shore up support outside of the party faithful.
For Pierre Poilievre and the opposition Conservatives, these byelections represent a test to see if they can do two things: 1) hold on to the seats they already have, and 2) pick off seats from the Liberals. Mr. Poilievre as a leader is still relatively untested in an electoral context, having only dealt with one by-election in Mississauga shortly after his accession. Now, after more than a year on the job, it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to turn around the Conservatives’ electoral fortunes after a string of disappointing losses under previous leaders. Turning either of the current Liberal seats blue in this byelection would admittedly be quite a feat, and he is unlikely to face criticism should he come up short here – but a strong showing in his party’s own incumbent seats will be table stakes. Poilievre’s future as party leader likely hinges on his electoral success in the next general election, with his predecessors getting the boot after disappointing showings.
Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois have a chance to increase their seat count for the first time in a while. Mr. Blanchet has proven to be a savvy leader with broader appeal than many expected, and the Bloc’s kingmaker position in Parliament created an interesting dynamic up until the supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and NDP. While most Bloc wins have been by small margins, they have been runner-ups by equally small margins in other ridings, so the Liberals will face a fight on all fronts for that Quebec seat.
Finally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party need to show that they can still win, even after eight years in power. After three terms as Prime Minister, Mr. Trudeau seeks to do what no party leader has done in the last 30 years: win the elusive fourth term in the next general election. A good showing in the by-elections would be a good indicator of Mr. Trudeau’s continued electoral success. Fresh off a Liberal Party convention, where he showed no signs of handing over the reins, Mr. Trudeau needs to demonstrate that he still has the draw for voters, even after accumulating eight years’ worth of political baggage.
It appears likely that the seat distribution will stay the same after this next round of by-elections, but stranger things have happened in politics. That crystal ball would come in quite handy right about now.
