With the rules now in place, the Ontario Liberal Leadership race is in full swing.
The “will they, won’t they” dance for prospective leadership contenders seems to be winding down, as the options Liberal voters will have when they vote later this year start to take shape. So far, only two candidates have registered with Elections Ontario to run for the Party’s top job: Current federal Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, and former Ontario provincial MPP Ted Hsu. Former Ontario cabinet Minister and current federal Member of Parliament for Ottawa-Centre, Yasir Naqvi, has also put a foot in the door and is expected to launch his campaign in short order.
This past week, another notable name threw their hat in the ring. Current Mississauga Mayor and former federal Liberal MP Bonnie Crombie has ended months of speculation by confirming she is interested in leading the Liberals, and aspiring to become Premier of Ontario. Current Premier Doug Ford could not resist commenting on her entrance, which is a strong indicator that she could be a real challenger to him if elected as leader.
Impact on the Race
Crombie’s entrance into the race brings some excitement to the contest, as she looks to draw a contrast to her opponents in the race. A self-proclaimed fiscally responsible and socially progressive Liberal, Crombie is a political centrist, which makes her dissimilar from current contenders who are more on the left side of the liberal family.
Some within the Ontario Liberal Party believe the party has gone too far to the left in recent elections, giving up on the province’s political middle and losing two consecutive elections in the process. Others, including leadership hopeful Nathan Erskine-Smith, believe that the party needs to double down on more progressive Liberal policies, an approach that has arguably worked well for Prime Minister Trudeau for the last eight years. The race is poised to be a contest of two different Liberal approaches; one that seeks to gain ground at the expense of the Progressive Conservatives (a la former Premier Dalton McGuinty), or draw support from NDP voters who may be frustrated at the Party’s inability to make major inroads at Queen’s Park.
Soul searching and party direction is a normal part of the leadership process. Look no further than the federal Conservative Party, who have changed out their Leader three times since 2015, all with different approaches to the top job. Given the Party’s disappointing election results since 2018, it remains to be seen which direction Party members want to see the Liberals go in 2026.
Federal Impact
As the Ontario Liberals fight for the soul of their party, their counterparts in Ottawa will be watching the race closely to see what resonates with their shared core supporters. Holding the most seats in Canada, Ontari (especially the Greater Toronto Area), is an important battleground for the Liberals to hold onto.
With a federal election likely to happen before the next provincial contest, the federal Liberals will be looking to see if the more centrist message that Crombie is preaching pays off or if the progressive messaging, which has worked for Liberals before, is still the hymn book of choice. While it seems unlikely Trudeau would whiplash back to the political centre (particularly in the current supply and confidence arrangement with the NDP), there may be a few centrist policies that the Feds consider to destabilize the Conservatives in the GTA.
What is Next
There is still much time left in this race as candidates have until September 5th to register and pay the $100,000 entry fee. Membership sales are permitted until September 11th, giving candidates plenty of time to jockey for votes as ballots will be cast on November 25 and 26 with a new leader being crowned on December 2nd.
