The starting gun of the Ontario Liberal Party leadership campaign has been fired, with Toronto MP Nate Erskine-Smith officially announcing his leadership bid. Appearing before supporters at a campaign rally in Scarborough last Tuesday, Erskine-Smith stated that the party is in desperate need of generational and grassroots renewal, something he contends he can bring in spades.
Although he may be the first to toss his hat in the ring, Erskine-Smith will surely not be the last. There are a number of federal, provincial and municipal Liberals who think they have a shot of taking over the party which currently doesn’t have official party status at Queens Park. The recent federal Liberal Party convention in Ottawa provided an excellent opportunity for potential candidates to gauge support among the party faithful, work the hospitality suite circuit, and not so suitably promote themselves.
Erskine-Smith has come out of convention weekend trying to position himself as the front runner. He was afforded a prime speaking slot on the convention floor to discuss gun violence, as well as hosted a hospitality suite that was so well attended that it had to be moved to a larger venue, which was then subsequently deemed a fire code violation due to the sheer number of people attempting to jam themselves into the event. Erskine-Smith carried this momentum into an official announcement the following week, first posting an announcement video on social media, followed by a campaign event the next day. Erskine-Smith has since received endorsements from Toronto MP Julie Dabrusin, Oakville MP Pam Damoff, Sudbury MP Viviane Lapointe, London MP Peter Fragiskatos as well as Beaches-East York MPP Mary-Margaret McMahon, one of only seven current OLP MPPs.
Erskine-Smith and his team are surely riding high, but they would be ill-advised to let their guard down. Both Ottawa MP Yasir Naqvi and Kingston MPP Ted Hsu are expected to announce their own leadership bids in the coming weeks, while Toronto MPP Adil Shamji was an omnipresent feature at the federal convention. Shamji also gained some backroom support with polling firm Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi throwing his support behind the former ER Doctor.
The biggest potential disruptor in the Ontario Liberal leadership at this point remains someone who hasn’t even outwardly mused about running for leadership – current Mississauga Mayor and former Liberal MP, Bonnie Crombie. Having attended the federal convention and having been encouraged by a number of people in attendance, Crombie is now said to be seriously considering launching her own bid. Supporters and advisers have stated that they are expecting a final decision mid-to-late May, giving Crombie a little under four months to sign up party members before the September 11 cutoff. Supporters say that Crombie’s name recognition and Peel Region roots could bode well in the 905 — a region that is crucial to any resurgence for the Liberals, and certainly to forming a majority government in Ontario. She has also emerged as a foil to Premier Ford’s municipal politics, with many conservatives saying she is one of the few Ontario politicians who really gets under Ford’s skin. However, waiting as long as she has to make a decision may have put Crombie at somewhat of a disadvantage, as the other prominent candidates have been organizing for months, raising money, signing up new members, forming campaign teams and travelling across the province.
Regardless of the outcome of the leadership election, the fact that so many prominent Liberals have expressed interest in leading a party in third place bodes well for the future of Ontario’s grits.
