For some, party conventions are often all hat, no cattle. They are, however, a good time to take the temperature of the party. So, what is the Liberal state of mind these days?
Hindsight is 20/20 but with the election interference controversy still swirling on Parliament Hill, convention organizers may have preferred a do-over on location. But Ottawa remains the beating heart of federal politics and where the die-hards feel at home. The 4,000 visitors were also a welcome boost to a city still grappling with a post-COVID and post-convoy world.
But for a government on the backfoot, the prime minister delivered a confident election-style speech to the faithful on Thursday evening. Mr. Trudeau looked to be in fighting form, surrounded by supporters who were keen to see him push back against Pierre Poilievre’s accusations of ‘wokeness.’ Putting to rest any last-gasp rumours of whether he’d lead the Party into the next election, the Justin Trudeau on stage Thursday night was the candidate delegates hope to see on the election hustings.
And while an election is unlikely anytime soon, Liberals should be feeling buoyed about their chances. At least based on a recent Abacus Data poll. Of course, the preference is to be ahead of your opponent, but to be statistically tied with the CPC at this point in the mandate is remarkable. In fact, with everything this government is facing, it’s a wonder the CPC isn’t head-and-shoulders ahead.
After all, this is a government heading into its eighth year in office, faced with a stubborn (though improving) cost of living and inflation crisis. The Prime Minister has dealt with one scandal after another. On paper, the Conservatives with their new, effective leader should be heading towards a decisive victory. And yet, the Trudeau Liberals are still within striking distance.
Could it be that the country has settled into permanent minority territory? Or that Mr. Poilievre’s populist and ‘broken’ messaging has peaked? Whatever it is, conventions and Question Period are opportunities for both leaders to sharpen their language between now and the next election. Even more important than language though, is the vision each party puts forward to Canadians.
It is often said that elections are about the future. For the Liberal Party, that future appears to include Justin Trudeau at the helm. There are some who suggest that he may be tempting fate by going for a fourth mandate. But he has earned the right to stick around, at least based on past performance. But if the leader remains the same, shouldn’t the rest of the party be looking forward rather than backwards? This misguided focus on the past rather than the future was brought home with the weekend’s messaging and special guests.
It goes without saying that, for Liberals, both Jean Chretien and Hilary Clinton stand as political giants. The love shown for Mr. Chretien from Liberals this past weekend runs deep. And at 89, he maintains an uncanny ability to connect with, and excite, Liberals. Mrs. Clinton also reminded everyone of what could have been in 2016, while demonstrating a deep knowledge of some recent Liberal successes. Her listing of those accomplishments, including universal daycare, led to several standing ovations. Both reminded Liberals what being Liberal is all about. Unfortunately, the names Chretien and Clinton have been around since the 90s. That’s three decades ago. In order to win the next election the party cannot go back to the future.
If they wanted to appear more forward-looking, organizers could have enlisted Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. AOC is a young, dynamic, left-leaning woman who speaks the same language as the voters Liberals need to motivate. Or there is Gavin Newsom – the well-coiffed, progressive Democratic Governor of California. Or former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern – a close political and policy ally to Justin Trudeau. Any one of these young, progressive leaders could have helped galvanize key parts of the Liberal base. It would also have brought youthful excitement to a Liberal brand in need of a jolt. Alas, the party seemed more content looking in the rearview mirror. So what does this approach say about where things stand for Liberals and the Liberal Party today?
On balance, things could be worse, but they could also be much better. So let’s saw it off at cautiously optimistic. But in order to give himself a solid shot at a fourth mandate, Mr. Trudeau must avoid becoming yesterday’s man. It’s always tempting to just listen to your favourite band’s greatest hits, but sometimes you should try out new artists and embrace new sounds. Otherwise, you risk being an analog-aficionado in an increasingly digital world.
