As parts of Atlantic Canada begin to pick up the pieces in the wake of Hurricane Fiona, a different type of storm continues to rage in eastern Europe. The situation unfolding in Ukraine remains dynamic and fast-moving. From significant advances and military success for the Ukrainian army, to worrying polls for President Putin, and his subsequent responses to those sentiments, events are playing out fast and furious. These developments are in addition to Russia’s much-criticized ‘land-grab’ of four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine last Friday which Canada denounced. All in all it would appear, based on these and other events, we are entering into a new, more dangerous and volatile phase of this war.
This should be cause for concern for Ukraine’s allies who, like Ukraine, seek an end to the illegal war as soon as possible. Based on previous successful responses to Russian actions, the only effective response is one that is sustained, overwhelming, and demonstrable. Indeed, just last Wednesday, the Biden Administration approved an additional $1.1B in security assistance for Ukraine, the 22nd such instalment, even as they deal with their own hurricane cleanup and a sharply divided Congress. The UK, also in the midst of severe political and economic challenges, has committed to matching its record amount of Ukraine support in 2023. For its part, Poland, Ukraine’s favourite neighbour, has accepted more than 2 million Ukrainians fleeing their country since the start of the war.
Canada has also been near the top of the list of countries supporting Ukraine, according to Global Affairs Canada and the Department of National Defence. As of this past July, Canada had committed $320 million in humanitarian assistance to respond to the needs of people affected by the situation, offered up to $620 million in bilateral loans to enhance Ukraine’s economic resilience in the midst of Russian aggression, and provided $626 million in military aid. This comes in addition to the ongoing efforts of Operation REASSURANCE and last week’s announcement from Defence Minister Anita Anand on enhancements to the Air Force’s mobility capabilities. And yet, in light of these significant contributions, why does it feel as though Canada’s support for Ukraine has suddenly stalled?
The first sign of an apparent slowdown came a few weeks ago in a CBC News story which suggested Minister Anand had not yet replied to a letter sent by her Ukrainian counterpart in late summer. While the Minister’s office pushed back by claiming Minister Anand is in frequent touch with her counterpart, the report did raise some eyebrows in the defence community.
Ukraine is likely pushing allies, like Canada, quite hard on ensuring sustained and necessary equipment and resources are delivered as part of their efforts against Russia. It’s quite possible that Canada is receiving multiple asks, at different levels, from different Ukrainian Ministers – from defence to foreign affairs – right up to President Zelenzky himself. Because let’s face it, in a life or death situation, niceties and nuance tend to get thrown out the window. But even with this apparent scatter-shot approach, it’s surprising – from both a military and political perspective – that Canada would allow the situation to reach this point.
In a difficult political climate, supporting Ukraine should be a no-brainer for the government. First, Canadians are mostly supportive of the fashion with which their government has responded and sought to support Ukraine. Second, supporting Ukraine is one of the few policies that receives close to unanimous support across the political spectrum. And third, and perhaps more importantly, it’s more crucial than ever to demonstrate Canada’s steadfast support for Ukraine.
Russia has been anticipating the arrival of winter, seeing it as a potential spark to crack Europe’s apparent solidarity in the face of expected energy shortfalls. In fact, we’ve already begun to see a drop in European support for Ukraine from countries like Italy, France and Germany, with Ukraine urging them to remain committed. If there was ever a time to demonstrate that Ukraine’s allies were not pulling away, especially countries with a large Ukrainian diaspora, it is now. And frankly, it is understandable that Ukraine has begun questioning Canada’s support. Before last week’s announcement by Minister Anand on enhancements to the RCAF’s mobility capabilities, it had been five weeks since a National Defence news product touched on Ukraine.
Fortunately, all signs suggest that a new package of support is in the works. The reason for the apparent lack of urgency from Canada’s side comes down to the fact that it is currently evaluating what the next tranche of support should look like. What that package ends up being will depend on a variety of factors. These factors likely include the assessed nature of the conflict in the short, medium and long-term, the appetite level for defence spending in tough economic times, and a matching exercise between what Ukraine wants and what Canada can provide.
Ultimately, this is good news for both the Canadian government and Ukraine. But to avoid a repeat of this unwanted situation, the government must learn how to walk and chew gum at the same time. In war, there’s no such thing as a summer break.
