The official Battle of Alberta may have ended, with the Edmonton Oilers besting the Calgary Flames, but the province is already bracing for another monumental fight. This one that may be even more rife with flagrant fouls, interference, and accusations of bad officiating.
Back in May, Jason Kenney shocked supporters, rivals, and politicos alike by announcing his intention to step down after barely three years in the premier’s chair. The news, which came after Kenney managed to squeak out a 51.4% victory in his party’s contentious leadership review, has thrown the United Conservative Party (UCP) into its second search for a leader in just five years.
Just a few weeks later, potential successors to Kenney are coming out of the woodwork. And if Kenney’s leadership review is any indication, this fight is certain to be a heated one. But are commentators making too much of this leadership race and the bitter infighting that led to it? Will the campaign present a fight for the party’s heart and soul, or are we just witnessing growing pains?
Let’s meet the candidates who will decide.
The Resistance
Jason Kenney may have been a central part of the Maclean’s-branded “resistance” back in 2018, but the past year has seen him contend with a simmering rebellion of his own.
Enter Brian Jean. Jean may have joined forces with Kenney after the right suffered an historic defeat at the hands of Rachel Notley’s NDP in 2015, but the two founders have little in common besides the desire to keep the province blue. Their differences became even more pronounced over the government’s handling of the pandemic and the internal caucus dissent that resulted from it.
Back in March, Jean handily won a by-election that sent him back to the legislature for the first time in five years. His publicly stated goal was to see Jason Kenney removed and to replace him as leader. This obviously deepened existing fault lines within an already-fragmented party. And as promised, Jean entered the race to replace Kenney almost before the resignation speech ended.
The question now is will Jean run a campaign that attempts to appeal to a broader cross-section of the UCP, or will he double down on the populist, socially conservative rhetoric he became known for when he headed the Wildrose?
If Jean hopes that members will forget that he was once leader, Danielle Smith hopes that they will forgive. As leader of the Wildrose Party, Smith and a majority of her caucus crossed the floor in 2014 to join the government of then Premier Jim Prentice. That decision didn’t sit well with voters. All the floor-crossers were defeated in the subsequent election won by Rachel Notley and the NDP. After politics, Smith became a popular radio host and is said to have the backing of Calgary’s business community.
The Kenney Loyalist
If Brian Jean and Danielle Smith led the anti-Kenney resistance, Travis Toews sat on the opposite side of the aisle.
Last week, Toews stepped down as Minister of Finance in order to focus on his bid for the party’s leadership. A first-term MLA who’s held one of the most senior government portfolios since 2019, Toews has remained a steadfast Kenney ally through thick and thin. He’s also got a substantial track record to show for his time in cabinet. This past March, Toews unveiled Alberta’s first balanced budget in years, while raising government revenues by 45% since 2020.
Nevertheless, Toews faces an uphill battle. Will party members respond to his brand of political bland or will they be more attracted to the personality-driven field of candidates? More importantly, will he be able to rid himself of the negative baggage associated with his outgoing boss? The latter may prove difficult given Kenney’s not-so-private endorsement and the fact former Kenney staffers are running the Toews campaign.
The Future?
And then there are the candidates who have the potential to inject some fresh blood into the party.
Although Transport Minister Rajan Sawhney has yet to formally join the race, her candidacy is all but confirmed. While not exactly a political outsider, Sawhney is still somewhat of an anomaly in a party that is largely dominated by older, white men. And last week, she hinted that her campaign would focus on creating broader “appeal to the diverse elements of our party and across our great province.”
Another name that has been floating around is Michelle Rempel Garner. The Calgary-area MP isn’t much of an outsider either, but Rempel Garner’s general willingness to work across the aisle and her open-mindedness on a range of issues from climate change to the LGBTQ2+ community set her apart from some other contenders in the race.
The question remains: will the novelty of these candidates be enough to inspire new, non-establishment UCP supporters to join the Party?
The Puck Drop
Last week, the UCP appointed a 12-person committee consisting of party leaders and former politicians to run the leadership election. Few other details have emerged around when and how the process will play out. More information will likely trickle out in the weeks to come.
