Overview
Last night, Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs secured a majority government with 83 seats – an increase of 16 seats when the Legislature dissolved in May. Ford’s second consecutive majority is a feat that no incumbent government has accomplished in over fifteen years.
The Premier’s second campaign was remarkably uneventful. The Ontario PC’s entered the 2022 election campaign with a nine-point lead and never looked back, executing a front-runner campaign marked by few media availabilities or public appearances. While this drew some criticism, voters did not appear to hold this to Ford, and the opposition parties were unable to turn those critiques into any kind of a change narrative.
Speaking of the opposition, the NDP and the Liberals wake up today having fallen short of expectations – and, without leaders. Both opposition parties had banked on the ballot question being a referendum on the pandemic, and on Doug Ford; it was a swing and a miss. It seemed that the mood of the electorate, and their concerns about affordability, got away from the opposition parties, as they struggled to drive issues and messages throughout the campaign.
The Opposition Parties
The goal for both opposition parties is now the same: rebuild.
Despite losing 7 seats – and all but one to the governing Tories – Andrea Horwath and the New Democrats were able to maintain Official Opposition status. This was Horwath’s fourth and final campaign at the helm of the NDP; a race will soon be underway to replace Horwath, who is stepping down after serving as leader for thirteen years.
While the NDP had been managing expectations heading into election night, the Liberals were unpleasantly surprised Thursday evening. There was a sense of optimism heading into the 2022 campaign for the Liberals, with many suggesting they may be able to regain not just official party status, but Official Opposition in the legislature. But candidate controversies and a lackluster performance from leader Steven Del Duca resulted in the Liberals being unable to find their groove. Acknowledging this underwhelming result, Del Duca stepped down as Liberal leader and asked the party executive to convene a leadership race as soon as possible.
It was status quo for Mike Schreiner and the Green Party as he retained his Guelph seat at Queen’s Park. The Greens spent a lot of time and resources in Parry Sound-Muskoka attempting to flip the Tory-held riding with no Liberal candidate running but ultimately were not successful.
Key Wins and Losses
- Vaughan-Woodbridge: Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca was unsuccessful in his attempt to reclaim the seat from Tory Minister Michael Tibollo
- Timmins: 32-year NDP MPP Gilles Bisson was defeated by Timmins Mayor and PC Candidate George Pirie.
- Brampton North: Without an incumbent MPP, it was PC candidate Graham McGregor that emerged victorious in a race that included former Liberal MPP Harinder Malhi.
- York-South Weston: Michael Ford, nephew of Premier Doug Ford, defeated incumbent NDP candidate Faisal Hassan.
- Haldimand-Norfolk: In a rare feat, independent candidate Bobbi Ann Brady upset PC candidate Ken Hewitt. Brady previously served as an Executive Assistant to former MPP Toby Barrett.
Next Steps
The first step for Premier Doug Ford will be to review his slate of candidates and update his cabinet. Key roles up for grabs include the Health and Long-Term Care portfolios following the retirement of Christine Elliott and Rod Phillips. All signs point to the Premier appointing his cabinet quickly. The Legislature will return on September 12th and one of the first items on the agenda will be to pass the Tories’ budget that was introduced at the end of April.
