The stage is now set. With Premier Doug Ford’s budget officially tabled, all eyes are on the Ontario election set to kick-off on Wednesday.
Budget 2022 was as much a fiscal document as it was the Ontario PC election platform. It was a series of pledges broken into five pillars that will be focal points for the campaign trail: Rebuilding Ontario’s Economy, Working for Workers, Building Highways and Key Infrastructure, Keeping Costs Down, and a Plan to Stay Open.
Premier Doug Ford leaves the Legislature with 67 seats, only four more than the majority threshold, compared to the NDP’s 38 seats, and 7 Liberal seats. With recent polling from Abacus Data showing an improvement in Ford’s approval rating and the PCs 4-point lead in the polls, today, this election is Ford’s to lose.
From the battle on the left and the rebuilding of the Liberals, to the new right-wing fringe parties and the impact of the Liberal/NDP deal in Ottawa, there are a number of factors that could play into what type of government Ontarians may get after June 2nd.
Battle for the Left
Andrea Horwath and her NDP caucus will be hoping that the fourth time’s the charm as they head out on the campaign trail. There has been little agreement between the NDP and the governing Tories since the NDP formed the Official Opposition in Ontario in 2018, and their election platform is designed to provide stark alternatives to the promises put forward by the PCs. Horwath had an easier time on the left in 2018 with many Liberal voters either staying home or parking their ballot with the NDP temporarily. A rebuilding Liberal Party means that the NDP will have stiff competition once again, with each claiming that they are the party to unseat Doug Ford’s PC government. A key riding to watch will be Toronto-St. Paul’s, which was an NDP pick-up in 2018. Incumbent Jill Andrews will face outspoken physician Nathan Stall who will look to return the seat to the Liberals.
Return of the Liberals
Steven Del Duca and the Ontario Liberals had hopes for a two-year rebuild that was brought to a sudden halt due to the COVID pandemic. Instead of crisscrossing the province following his election as leader on March 7th, 2020, he has had to try and connect with voters over Zoom, while Doug Ford could hold a captive audience for daily press conferences, when desirable. Del Duca enters this campaign trying to improve on the Liberals’ 7-seat showing from 2018 which relegated the party to third place behind the governing Tories, and opposition NDP. The NDP and Liberals have made very similar pledges on education and health care in an attempt to woo public sector front-line workers, which could mean the strength of local candidates and campaigns could be the deciding factor in tight races. An important race for the Liberals will be in Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte. The riding is held by Progressive Conservative Attorney General Doug Downey but the Liberals have recruited a star candidate in Barrie Mayor Jeff Lehman. Despite the riding having a significant rural population that will skew to the Tories, Lehman’s name recognition could be just enough to help the Liberals pick up the riding.
Role of Right-Wing Fringe Parties
Derek Sloan’s Ontario Party and Jim Karahalios’ New Blue Party have entered the Ontario landscape this election looking to give voters an alternative to the Progressive Conservatives. Many pundits and politicos have written them off as right-wing fringe parties that won’t hurt the Ford government’s majority government hopes. This may be the case province-wide, but there are three races to watch where their candidates may siphon off enough votes to split the vote in favour of the Liberals or NDP.
In Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Ontario Party Leader Derek Sloan will face-off against PC candidate, and mayor of Loyalist Township, Ric Bresee. Sloan held this riding as a Member of Parliament before being expelled from the federal Conservative caucus. His local name recognition could result in splitting the vote.
Ontario Party MPP Rick Nicholls is looking to do the same in another seat that the Tory’s previously won in 2018. Leamington councillor Trevor Jones is carrying the PC banner this campaign taking over for Nicholls who has held the riding since 2011. The NDP finished second to Nicholls in the last two campaigns and the Liberals held it prior to Nicholls victory in 2011. A split here between Nicholls and Jones could have both parties eyeing it as a potential gain.
Another riding to watch is Cambridge, which has flip-flopped Tory and Liberal over the past three elections. In 2018, PC candidate Belinda Karahalios defeated Liberal Minister Kathryn McGarry. Karahalios was removed from the PC caucus after voting against Ford’s pandemic emergency powers bill in 2020 and joined her husband’s New Blue Party as their first sitting MPP. Karahalios was an underdog in her initial nomination in 2018 and has a large local following in Cambridge. Her own support could take enough votes away from local PC Candidate Brian Riddell for the NDP and Liberals to come up the middle.
How Ottawa Could Impact the Outcome:
In advance of the Ontario campaign, the NDP, Liberals, and Green Party leaders agreed that they would not support a Ford minority government. It wasn’t given much attention at the time as all party leaders typically say that heading into an election. That changed when the federal NDP came to an agreement with the Trudeau Liberals on a Supply and Confidence Agreement. While Andrea Horwath and the NDP have unofficially supported Liberal minority governments in the past, there has never been a formal agreement, at least under her tenure as Leader. In 1985, however, the governing PCs narrowly won the most seats, but were short of a majority. After six weeks of negotiations, David Peterson’s Liberals formed a government thanks to the support of Bob Rae’s NDP caucus and a policy accord based on political reforms and legislative measures to be implemented over two years. Premier Ford and the Ontario PCs are mindful of this history (and the recent federal example) and will be reminding supporters what is at stake if they don’t return a majority PC government. Without a majority government, things could get very interesting in Ontario after June 2nd.
Key Dates:
- May 4th – Campaign begins
- May 12th – Candidate nominations close
- May 16th – Televised leader’s debate
- May 19th to May 28th – Advanced polls are open
- May 27th – Deadline to apply for mail-in ballot
- June 2nd – Election Day