Members of Parliament will vote today on an opposition motion introduced by Interim Conservative Leader Candice Bergen. The motion asks the government to table a plan by the end of the month to lift COVID-19 public health restrictions. Notice for that motion was given on the same day Liberal MP Joel Lightbound held a press conference to express his discontent with the government’s recent handling of pandemic policy – until last week, Lightboud served as the Liberal Quebec Caucus Chair. While the timing of the two events may have been coincidental, they are driving towards the same path: forcing a debate about how Canada should handle the COVID pandemic and associated restrictions moving forward.
Regardless of the outcome of the Opposition motion, the biggest threat to Justin Trudeau is dissent within his own ranks. The pressure is on the Prime Minister to make a decision: does he dig in his heels on the status quo, or start listening to those on the other side and provide a plan for pandemic policy post-Omicron?
The sticking points
Lightbound charged that public health decisions like mandatory vaccines for truck drivers were made for political reasons, brought in to wedge the Conservaitve opposition ahead of last summer’s snap election. Clearly, the wedge worked; former Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole failed to convince voters at that time that the mandate was more about politics than it was about public health.
While the issue tripped up O’Toole, it also created a schism for at least a handful of Liberal Caucus members, who are normally a very disciplined team. Feeling emboldened by the very different tone that conversations around pandemic restrictions have taken in recent weeks, Lightbound said now is the time to reevaluate and de-escalate the politics of the pandemic. He also noted that there are other notable Liberals who agree with him. Another Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith weighed in on Twitter last week, saying he agreed it’s time to tone down divisive rhetoric and re-evaluate pandemic health measures based on the evidence but he disagreed with the timing of Lightbound’s statement as the Freedom Convoy protests continue.
Government MPs dissenting so publicly with their leader is not a common occurrence. Paul Wells called Lightbound’s comments “the biggest threat to Justin Trudeau’s leadership since Jane Philpott quit Cabinet.” Lightbound came across as measured and reasonable in his comments, and his status as a respected senior Liberal, well-liked by many in the Party, forced colleagues and media to listen carefully. Lightbound took a likely career-limiting risk to raise these concerns, at a time when public opinion suggests support for the removal of at least some COVID public health restrictions. For the Prime Minister, the fallout from these comments is serious, and perhaps more complex to manage than the anger conveyed by the trucker convoy outside of Parliament Hill.
Lightbound isn’t an island in calling for a shakeup to pandemic management. He has joined a growing chorus of voices including industry stakeholders in air travel and tourism who are asking for border testing requirements to be reassessed and relaxed (supported by infectious disease doctors). He also joins other Parliamentarians calling for a reappraisal of public health measures, starting with the government communicating a plan for the way forward. Even Canada’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Teresa Tam has opened the door to looking at new ways to handle the pandemic and learning to live with the virus.
This pressure could accelerate a change in travel restrictions sooner rather than later. Conservative MP Melissa Lantsman has been holding Minister of Transportation Omar Alghabra’s feet to the fire on the public health rationale for travel testing requirements in particular, saying the measures are punitive, ineffective and costly. Media reports late last week suggested rules on pre-departure PCR testing may soon be amended, which would be the first change to such requirements since the Omicron variant hit Canada in December.
The Result
Restrictions are part of the equation; tone and caucus management is another. Prime Minister Trudeau will be under some pressure to reassess what Lightbound effectively called divisive rhetoric aimed at critics of the government’s public health decisions. Efforts to be more conciliatory are already on display; the PM met Thursday with opposition leaders to discuss the federal government’s course of action on the blockades, while also convening the cabinet Incident Response Group for the first time since the election campaign. Critics and colleagues of the PM are hoping the shift in tone precedes an imminent shift in pandemic policy, which so far has largely been driven by provincial leaders. The government’s decision on whether or not to publish a plan on how to end public health restrictions (should today’s opposition motion pass) is still up in the air – but there is increasing pressure to do something very soon. Industry stakeholders who are immediately impacted by these restrictions should look to engage with the government in the coming days and weeks on how they can help implement a consistent and safe return to normal.