The ‘Freedom Convoy’ has rolled into Ottawa, dominating social media feeds and political news since they arrived on Friday. While it’s not yet clear how long protesters plan to stay, the political ramifications of their movement may linger long after they’ve hit the road for home.
The convoy was framed by organizers and supporters as a protest against vaccine mandates, in response to the Trudeau government removing the exemption for unvaccinated essential travelers having to quarantine once they entered the country. The removal of that exemption on January 15th was met with frustration from some truck drivers, who felt they should continue to remain exempt from this policy.
In the time since the first convoy departed British Columbia, it has grown to include a number of frustrated Canadians whose issues with the government reach beyond vaccine mandates. The protest is now a catchall for those opposed to COVID-19 public health restrictions, grievances with inflation and the cost of living, and an overall anger towards government and political decision-makers. Some of the protests’ organizers have connections to extremist groups, including those with white nationalist ideological views. The bandwagon protest has also drawn criticism for the behaviour of participants, including those who desecrated monuments, harassed small businesses, bullied homeless shelters into feeding them and brandished hateful symbols and signs over the weekend.
The convoy’s presence has put Canada’s political leaders on the spot. Prime Minister Trudeau – the primary target of the convoy’s frustrations – has firmly condemned the protestors, referring to them as “a small fringe minority” with “unacceptable views.” No Liberal Members of Parliament were reported at the weekend’s events, with most taking to social media to disavow the actions of unruly protestors.
While Trudeau is unlikely to find much support in the convoy crowd, this vocal group has drawn some attention to the Liberal Leader’s declining likability, which took a considerable hit in the Fall election. Public opinion data suggests that Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is now polling ahead of Trudeau for favoured Liberal Party Leader. While the job of Liberal Party Leader is likely Trudeau’s as long as he wants it, it is clear that COVID fatigue, inflation and the absence of “sunny ways” has taken a toll on the Prime Minister’s approval ratings.
For Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole, the questions the convoy poses to his leadership are seemingly more immediate. The Leader’s own stance on the convoy took a few turns; while he was subdued in his support before their arrival, his posture changed quickly by the week’s end (notably, following the Conservatives’ caucus retreat). While O’Toole opted to meet convoy organizers off-site, a number of high-profile Conservative caucus members threw their support behind the convoy and attended events over the weekend. O’Toole will likely be asked about the divergence in this level of support by reporters this week.
The biggest challenge for O’Toole is not the convoy itself, but the fractures it has exposed within the Conservative caucus. With his Deputy Leader Candice Bergen, Shadow Minister of Finance, Pierre Poilievre, and other visible members of the caucus making their support for the convoy clear, it is obvious that O’Toole’s teammates are not waiting to follow his lead before jumping in with both feet on politically fraught issues. This only compounds pressure O’Toole faces to fast-track a review of his leadership, rather than wait for the next scheduled convention in 2023. While the protest was designed to make Justin Trudeau uncomfortable, it may be most unbearable for the Tory leader.
The New Democrats were also pulled into the political fray around the convoy. While the protest could have been used to contrast the NDP’s support for vaccine mandates, Leader Jagmeet Singh instead faced questions around his brother-in-law’s sizeable donation to the convoy. Singh responded to the discovery by condemning this donation, and reasserting he does not support the protest.
While the convoy’s main events may be winding down, its presence is likely to take center stage with the resumption of Parliament today. How the party leaders manage, or mismanage, their response to the presence on the Hill may end up defining more than a day’s worth of political news.
