Last night party leaders clashed for the second day in a row in a nationally televised debate.
Leaders sharpened their attacks on the heels of a fiery French debate, hoping to break free of a week-long stalemate for the top contenders. Before the debate, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole faced some backlash over his fully costed platform. It introduced new spending, but would get the budget back to balance by scrapping the Liberals’ childcare agreements with the provinces. At the same time, the Liberals and NDP dealt with Premier François Legault’s endorsement of O’Toole’s hands-off approach to provincial relations.
Millions of undecided voters and potential flippers were ready to see which leader made the most compelling case for why Canadians should choose them to be Prime Minister.
Here’s our account of how the leaders did and what they still need to accomplish before polling day:
Justin Trudeau
What worked?
Trudeau highlighting his government’s climate change plan and achievements was his strongest segment. Trudeau fiercely defended having implemented a national price on carbon, a cap on oil sands emissions, and a plan to ban single-use plastics. While the other leaders noted that Canada lagged behind its G7 counterparts in carbon reduction, Trudeau effectively promoted his government’s major climate wins. Overall, this was Trudeau at his best on a topic that most voters say is the most important issue in this election.
What didn’t?
Partisans and pundits were very critical of the debate’s format, but after spending the entire evening being bombarded on four fronts, Trudeau may have the biggest bone to pick with it. No matter how strong his rebuttals were, being forced into a corner made it hard for him to speak directly with voters and push out his narrative. That put him in a lose-lose position from start to finish.
What’s next?
Trudeau’s job over the remaining 10 days is clear. First, he needs to win back some of the voters he’s lost to the CPC. He must continue to create doubt in voters’ minds around which Erin O’Toole they’re voting for – federal election Erin or Conservative leadership Erin. Next, Trudeau must embrace the role of Captain Canada he debuted during Wednesday’s French language debate and take Mr. Blanchet head-on in seat-rich Quebec. Finally, in order to win over the ‘promiscuous progressives’, he needs to challenge Mr.Singh on the viability of the NDP’s platform since the likelihood of it forming a government is slim. No easy task in such a short period of time.
Erin O’Toole
What worked?
As the only English language debate, last night presented an opportunity for Conservative leader Erin O’Toole to clearly communicate his plan to voters. O’Toole was able to present himself as a calm and collected leader, which was a sharp contrast to Liberal leader Justin Trudeau who was often defensive, agitated, and on his heels.
Heading into the debate, the Summa team noted that O’Toole’s job was to show Canadians that there are two prime ministers on the debate stage – the current one and the next one.
O’Toole was able to highlight his platform while avoiding any potential knock-out punches from Trudeau. The Liberal leader wasn’t able to press any of the wedge issues that he’s had success with on the campaign trail. Also beneficial for O’Toole were the pointed barbs fired at Trudeau from Green leader Annamie Paul and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh..
Overall, O”Toole’s demeanor, consistency, and messaging reinforced his desire to showcase himself as a moderate Conservative leader.
What didn’t?
The format of the debate made it difficult for O’Toole to successfully refute some of the allegations made by Trudeau. In the instances when O’Toole and Trudeau did go head-to-head, O’Toole could only offer a short rebuttal well after the fact. This left his messaging disconnected and unclear for viewers. It was particularly apparent during discussions surrounding Indigenous reconciliation and affordability.
What’s next?
While undecided voters may be more familiar with O’Toole, the next 10 days are crucial for the Conservatives to solidify and hold their support. The Conservative leader has reclaimed the 2019 Conservative base, and now needs to attract new supporters to the blue tent if they have any intention of pulling away from the Liberals in this race.
A clean debate performance for O’Toole means that the Liberals will need to double down on their attempts to stoke fear among progressive voters, undecideds and Liberal/Conservatives switchers about the prospect of an O’Toole government. To combat this, O’Toole should continue to present himself as the prime-minister-in-waiting.
Despite beginning the campaign in the safe, COVID-friendly confines of the media studio, O’Toole would also benefit by getting out on the road in winnable target ridings to engage voters directly and get them to the polls. A ballot cast is a ballot that cannot be changed no matter what issue the other parties will bring to the forefront in the home stretch. O’Toole’s job now is a strong get-out-the-vote effort to get ballots in the box during the advance polls this weekend.
Jagmeet Singh
What worked?
Singh was in good form last night and stood out among his competitors as more relatable and able to connect with people. Both personal and personable, Singh appeared quite at-ease and performed well in one-on-one debate moments with Justin Trudeau. He landed strong points that should resonate with Canadians on the Liberals’ apparent abandonment of their pharmacare promise, on “saying no” to paid sick leave during the pandemic and then promising it during the election, and on the Liberal government’s climate record.
Singh got his messages across in a calm, collected, and genuine manner. One of those messages, which came up several times during the debate, was that the NDP has a practical plan on tax reform to make sure the super rich and companies like Amazon contribute to paying for the costs of the pandemic and the recovery.
What didn’t?
Early in the debate, Singh tried to go way off topic and land an attack on the Prime Minister around the long term care home crisis and was interrupted and reigned in by debate host Shachi Kurl.
Singh and Trudeau had an exchange on climate that left the NDP leader on the defensive in an area where he wanted to score some points. Singh started by criticizing the efficacy of the government’s emission reduction plan, saying Canada had the worst record in the G7. Trudeau shot back in a subsequent exchange, citing analysis that rated the Liberal climate plan an “A” and the NDP proposal an “F”. Singh responded that Trudeau’s record deserves an “F”, but he wasn’t able to properly communicate any specifics before being cut off by the moderator.
What’s next?
Jagmeet Singh had a good night, but the NDP has a lot of ground to make up. His debate performance positions the NDP for an end-game strategy that leans into Singh’s leading personal favourability among Canadians and the contrast with Trudeau on the matter of trust. Going forward, Singh needs to continue challenging the credibility of Liberal promises that share a lot of ground with his own party’s policy platform. He has made a good case that Trudeau can’t be trusted to deliver, but needs to communicate specifics on the NDP’s proposals in order to close the deal with voters who may be on the fence.
Yves-François Blanchet
What worked?
Blanchet was a lively and aggressive debate participant in his second language. His bluntness was a breath of fresh air on some issues. When it came to the question of climate change, he pitched to voters with a concrete plan — and a brutally honest one at that. That was a welcome departure from his Liberal and Conservative counterparts, whose pitches largely failed to connect on that front.
What didn’t?
Blanchet’s arrogance and combativeness with moderators didn’t win him any friends – in English Canada. Then again, that may be the very thing that helps his party woo voters in the only province they’re actually running in.
What’s next?
In an odd twist, it is the English leaders’ debate that looks as though it could have a significant impact in Quebec. Blanchet, incensed by the opening question from debate host Sachi Kurl about secularism and racism, framed the entire debate as one of Quebec, and the Bloc Québécois, against the rest of Canada. This is the narrative the Bloc wants. And from a quick scan of Quebec media this morning, now they have it.
Annamie Paul
What worked?
Green Party Leader Annamie Paul, in her national English-language debut, often appeared as a voice of reason on the debate stage. Whereas her counterparts were busy throwing (figurative) stones at one another on the issue of reconciliation, she demonstrated moral leadership by repeatedly bringing the conversation back to the issue at hand.
What didn’t?
Paul’s attempt to explain why Canadians should trust her leadership fell flat. When asked about concerns regarding the ongoing turmoil within her party, Paul largely dodged the question by speaking about the thing that’s been the main focus of her campaign so far: herself. We’re not even sure if we heard her mention the Green Party of Canada during last night’s debate – but, can you blame her?
What’s next?
It was undoubtedly Annamie Paul’s best night of the campaign – finally getting some visibility on the national stage. But regardless of what happened last night, Paul’s main objective remains the same: winning her race in Toronto-Centre. After that, her battle inside the Green Party continues.
