Election 2021 is just about at the mid-way point. The first half has been a bit sleepy with the Conservatives making up ground on the Liberals. The race is now dead-locked heading into the home stretch. While far from a perfect campaign for the Liberals, there is reason for optimism heading into the crucial back half of the campaign.
The release of the Liberal platform, expected today, could provide the party with precisely the kind of galvanizing moment needed to jumpstart their lackluster campaign. While the party has put forward significant policy proposals on COVID-19, housing, healthcare, mental health, Indigenous Peoples, and the environment, they’ve yet to effectively tie those together into a broader vision of what a post-pandemic Canada should look like.
The Liberals started their campaign by telling Canadians that they’ll have their backs. According to Justin Trudeau, his government had their backs during the pandemic with support programs and securing vaccines, and they’ll have their backs as Canada finishes the fight against COVID and rebuilds post-pandemic. If Team Trudeau wants to move beyond their early campaign stumbles, they will need to get back to this narrative.
Liberals hope that like Andre de Grasse in his Olympic gold 200m race, a slow start won’t prevent Justin Trudeau from hitting his stride as leaders rocket towards the finish line. Thanks to angry, fringe protestors and a solid performance on Radio-Canada this past Sunday, their leader appears to have regained his veteran campaign chops. Voters should expect to see more of this re-invigorated and re-energized Trudeau in the coming weeks, not a moment too soon for the embattled Liberal campaign.
One way to show that vigor is during the upcoming debates. With the first French-language debate scheduled for tomorrow, followed by back-to-back debates next week, voters will get to see each of the leaders up close and personal. Whether viewership will be as high as in past campaigns is another question. Expect to see plenty of post-debate social media activity from the Liberals similar to what the party did to amplify Trudeau’s strong performance this past Sunday.
But what will matter most in this election, as it always does, is identifying supporters and getting them to the polls. This effort now includes taking advantage of the advance polls and mail-in ballots, in addition to your more traditional election day get-out-the-vote (GOTV) strategy. While it’s assumed Conservative voters show up to vote, one only has to look at the 2019 election to see what Liberals can achieve in a tight race. Of the 18 ridings decided by two per cent or less, the Liberals won 14 of them. That kind of ground game will be the difference between securing another mandate and a stinging loss. A lot will ride on whether the NDP can improve their GOTV efforts which, the party admitted, fell short in 2019. If they don’t, the Liberals could have the upper hand to win those swing progressive ridings.
To date, the 2021 federal election doesn’t appear to have gone according to the Liberals’ plan (with some maybe wondering if they had one). But the real campaign starts now. Canadians are heading home from the cottage and back to work or school. Voters are now ready to tune in to learn who has the right stuff to lead the country through this next phase of the pandemic and the recovery. In the first half of the campaign, the edge has gone to the Conservatives. But as we’ve seen before, it’s not how you start the race but how you finish it. Just ask Mr. de Grasse.
