The 2021 federal election has barely kicked off. Volunteers are still rushing to claim the best real estate from which to perch their party’s signs. The Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP all have dozens of candidate nominations still up for grabs. Yet, 2 of 3 major parties have already shared their policy platforms with Canadians. Why the rush? There’s more to it than you might think.
The NDP
They say that the early bird gets the worm. And being the first of the pack to share their policy vision with Canadians this election season, the NDP are certainly hoping that the age-old idiom stands the test of time.
Why jump the gun? There are, of course, practical reasons. The parties have just over a month (36 days, to be precise) to make their case to Canadians. And with the NDP starting from a rather distant third place — not to mention a pandemic election in which more voters than ever are likely to cast their ballots early — the dippers have no time to spare.
But there may be more strategic considerations behind the party’s decision to go at it early. Back in 2019, the NDP suffered its worst election results in fifteen years after failing to assure Canadians that they presented a viable alternative to the status-quo. Although the party’s electoral fortunes had steadily been on the decline since Jack Layton’s death in 2011, much of the 2019 retreat could be attributed to then-rookie Jagmeet Singh’s failure to convince enough voters that he was the real deal. And while Singh actually leads all federal leaders with a net favourability score of +16, likability may not be enough as too many people may dismiss him as a lightweight TikTok star whose party doesn’t have the conviction nor the experience to govern.
By revealing his cards early, then, Singh wants to show Canadians that his party means business, and is campaigning for government. And what better way to convince voters that you’ve got a plan than releasing an extensive, 115-page policy document before the writ has even been dropped? The timing is also a clever attempt by the NDP to wrest control of the narrative away from the Liberals, shifting the dial from the government’s successful vaccine rollout toward issues. The NDP will seek to pivot to issues like affordability – specifically housing and prescription drugs, and demonstrate that the Liberals have yet to make progress after six years in power.
The Conservatives
The Conservatives, too, have wasted no time. Speaking from a makeshift stage set up in an Ottawa hotel room, Erin O’Toole unveiled his party’s plan to secure the country’s future on the first full day of the campaign.
Like the NDP, the Conservatives are trailing behind the Liberals and have no time to waste in their pursuit of voters — particularly in Ontario’s vote-rich 905 region. And with the party finally making some modest gains in the polls, they’re probably hoping to benefit from early voting too.
But there may be more to it than that. By dropping their platform on day one, the tories could be trying to free up resources and focus their attention on one area that desperately needs it: O’Toole’s public image. For all the grief that Conservatives have given Trudeau over his affinity for selfies and Singh for his TikTok stardom, that profile can help you win elections. And they may finally be catching on — just look at their decision to adorn the platform document with a Men’s Health-style cover.
The Liberals
As for the Liberals, they’re hoping that running on their record will be enough for Canadians.
That’s a bold strategy, but one that could pay off. Nearly half of Canadians appear satisfied with the government’s performance, and the appetite for change is lower than it was on election day in 2019. And with 71% of eligible Canadians fully vaccinated, the Prime Minister stayed true to his promise of supplying vaccines to all those who want them by September 2021.
Still, a strategy that relies too heavily on maintaining the status-quo always has a chance of backfiring. While the Liberals have been able to keep a steady, albeit shrinking lead in the polls for months, taking voter intention for granted is a very risky move. To realize their intention of regaining a majority, Trudeau and Co. will need to provide Canadians with a robust vision of what they hope for under four more years of Liberal rule. Simply telling voters about what they have done may not be enough.
With plans to release their platform mid-way through the campaign, the Liberals also risk letting opposition parties snatch control of the narrative right out of their hands. That’s a big gamble that could make the difference between a majority and minority government — a gamble they may end up regretting come election day.
