Commons headaches aside, Liberals are positioned for Election 44

3 minute read

All things considered, the accomplishments of the 43rd Parliament put the government in a good position for an election in the fall, even as an increasingly combative House of Commons derailed some of their key objectives in 2021. If the Prime Minister calls an election in late summer, the government’s accomplishments during this unprecedented parliamentary cycle could outshine its shortcomings for voters and stakeholders alike. 

Government House Leader Pablo Rodriguez said in a public statement a couple of weeks ago that the government wanted four key bills to pass the House and the Senate before the summer break. All of those bills are still before the House with only three sitting days left before the summer break. When the government laid out its short term agenda on Thursday, the top priority for remaining sitting days was given to C-30, the Budget Implementation Act. On C-30 alone, about seven hours of debate remain before the allocated time runs out in the House. 

Collaborative policymaking on COVID-19 supports

The next few days will cap off a Parliamentary cycle that has been equal parts collaborative and combative. Members of Parliament from all sides worked together to unanimously grant the government authority for unprecedented spending on pandemic social and business support. Some of those measures were debated for only minutes or hours. 

Even the former Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre acknowledged that former finance minister Bill Morneau’s office was open to ideas from the opposition in the early stages of the pandemic. Poilievre is not known for being conciliatory with the Liberal government, and those sentiments were echoed by others on both sides of the House. 

Government bills hit roadblocks in 2021

Once the primary pandemic support programs were delivered, Parliament continued to trudge on, and parties took on an adversarial approach to policy making in the later months of 2020. That began with the WE Charity affair and the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament, which critics said was a tactic to derail committee work on the WE scandal. That’s when the Official Opposition really started digging in. Conservative MPs routinely dragged their feet on key government bills, including the fall economic statement implementation act. That bill was introduced in December and only became law in early May. 

Then as the session progressed, collaborative work all but vanished as filibusters and time allocation motions brought up memories of the pre-election jockeying we saw at the end of the last majority Parliament in 2019. With limited time in the House, the government ended up having to prioritize four bills at the end of the spring sitting, leaving some of its high profile goals unaccomplished, including C-11 (Digital Charter Implementation Act), and C-21 on firearms restrictions. 

It remains to be seen whether those four priority bills will make it through the House by Wednesday. Either way, the government is well positioned if there’s an election in the fall.

Canadians care most about the pandemic response

The good news for the Liberal Party is most Canadians said the top issues impacting their vote were related to the pandemic response and recovery. 

Abacus Data held a webinar in late April on the path to a 2021 election wherein CEO David Coletto laid out the top issues impacting vote intention. The top issues were improving healthcare in Canada (38 per cent); leading Canada through a post-pandemic recovery (36 per cent); growing the economy and creating jobs (32 per cent); and making life as affordable as possible (30 per cent). On supporting those who need financial assistance during the pandemic, Abacus Data found 52 per cent of Canadians approved of the government while only 28 per cent disapproved. That bodes well for a government that has doled out massive sums to individuals and businesses through 2020 and 2021 in successful collaboration with all opposition parties. 

After the House rises this summer, and as the vaccination effort and reopening plans gain steam, the Liberals will be working hard to showcase the support delivered to Canadians over the course of COVID-19. If we do end up seeing a late summer election call, these House of Commons headaches could become an afterthought for a government that’s arguably delivered on what voters care about most.

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