The public revolt of 16 members of Jason Kenney’s caucus last week highlights the growing unrest within the Alberta government. It also serves as a warning for other leaders whose parties contain strong elements of the anti-lockdown camp. Federal Conservative leader Erin O’Toole faces a similar challenge. His attempts to broaden the base of the party during a pandemic have exposed some weeds in the grassroots. O’Toole would be wise to learn from Kenney’s missteps.
A grim sign
The 16-member revolt in Alberta’s United Conservative Party was in reaction to another round of COVID-19 restrictions announced by Jason Kenney’s government last week. It was a grim sign for Premier Kenney. The revolt shows that his caucus, especially in rural ridings where the conservative base is strongest, is now comfortable openly questioning his leadership.
Jason Kenney’s low approval rating explains why he is in such a tough spot. His popularity has dropped steadily since becoming premier in 2019 and the pandemic has only made matters worse. Currently, UCP support stands at 26% with less than a third of Albertans approving of the government’s handling of COVID-19. The normally sure-footed Kenney can not seem to find safe middle ground. Hardliners think he’s gone to far, while moderates feel he hasn’t gone far enough.
Precedent for party discipline
Given that the letter expressed a lack of confidence in the UCP government, Kenney’s public response to the internal revolt was surprisingly conciliatory.
“We live in a vibrant parliamentary democracy where people have a diverse range of views, particularly on something as important as the best response to COVID-19,” Kenney said, suggesting he won’t boot caucus members or even publicly chastise them for undermining government policy.
In private, he traded his olive branch for empty threats. Kenney warned his rebel MLAs in a Thursday caucus meeting that he would call a snap election if they failed to fall in line. He also threatened to expel any caucus member who encouraged others to break public health regulations.
This response failed to recognize the reason why those representatives were fine with signing the public letter in the first place. They weren’t concerned about reprisal from the top. They also believe their electoral chances are better than those of Jason Kenney.
Government caucus members in Alberta now know they can rebel against government policy under the guise of democratic debate. That’s not good for Premier Kenney, and other party leaders would be wise to learn from his missteps.
Lessons offered
Like Kenney, federal Conservative leader Erin O’Toole heads a political party that’s not as united as he would like. His popularity has also waned as he attempts to broaden the party base and attract voters sitting closer to the center. The main difference between the two is that O’Toole is in opposition. He is not on the hook for the COVID-19 response. Even so, he should be careful in the fights he picks. O’Toole must be realistic about party discipline, as well as conciliatory and compromising with his caucus on social issues – especially if elected party members begin to see their political fortunes elsewhere.
