If you spend much time in Ottawa political circles, virtual or otherwise, you’ll know there’s a belief among many that something more than spring is in the air. There’s been much discussion in recent weeks about a spring election – and with good reason.
Our colleagues at Abacus Data recently released a barrage of fresh data, much of which points to a fairly rosy electoral climate for the governing Liberals. The Liberals (33%) maintain a steady lead over the Conservatives (29%) and NDP (19%) nationally but crucially have opened up big leagues over their main rivals in the decisive provinces of Ontario (41% to 28% for the CPC) and Quebec (34% to 27% for the BQ). The Prime Minister’s numbers were pretty good, too: 38% disapprove to 37% approve. Despite being down from a high watermark in the spring of 2020, he’s still up from his position heading into the 2019 election. If one were judging by math alone, the obvious conclusion would be that the time is now for the governing Liberals. But, as is often the case in politics, 2+2 doesn’t always equal 4.
For starters, both Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh have publicly stated they will not bring down the government during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the prospect of conspiring together to trigger an election that Canadians don’t particularly want is politically unpalatable, for obvious reasons. The Liberals could, of course, try to engineer some kind of poison pill in the upcoming budget. But, given the macros and Jagmeet Singh’s public positioning, it’s hard to imagine something so unpalatable that the NDP would refuse to swallow it. The lack of any imperative to make concessions on the budget also presumably lessens the Liberal instinct and opportunity to “go” now, since they are operating effectively as a majority.
The familiar refrain that the Liberals could always just ‘go themselves’ is fraught with risks for the government. To “call an election” the Prime Minister would have to go to the Governor General (or Administrator of Canada in this case) and ask them to dissolve Parliament. By convention, the Governor General has historically obliged past Prime Minister’s requests to intervene in parliamentary affairs’, despite the often inherently political nature of those requests. There is, however, nothing that says the Governor General is obligated to honour the PM’s wishes. These are unprecedented times, with the country in the middle of a global pandemic and national crisis unlike anything seen in the last 70 years. One would assume (even hope) that a green-light to send Canadians to the polls is far from certain.
And of course, there’s the matter of the Governor General themselves (or the lack there-of). As was widely publicized, now former Governor General Julie Payette resigned in January after allegations of bullying and workplace harassment at Rideau Hall were validated by an independent investigation. While an independent committee has been struck to choose a successor (or re-struck, given that this new committee looks a lot like the Advisory Committee on Vice-Regal Appointments created by the Harper Government and scrapped by the Liberals in 2015), it’s unlikely to be an expedient process. Both the Prime Minister and the Queen have a lot of other things on their plate at the moment. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada Richard Wagner is serving as the interim GG in an administrative capacity, but asking the Chief Justice to make an unprecedented intervention into parliamentary affairs’ in the middle of an unprecedented global pandemic would be, to say the least, complicated. For all these reasons, is it possible that Canada’s top judge might deny the Prime Minister’s request for dissolution? Judges, as a matter of profession, tend to have a history of thinking for themselves. And the political fallout for the Liberals would be incredibly damaging.
Assuming all those hurdles can be cleared, there’s also, quite plainly, the risks of running an election during the pandemic. Especially as public health officials in Ontario continue to predict a looming third wave. Political masterminds in Ottawa will have watched very closely the continuing debacle unfolding in Newfoundland & Labrador. The province has been forced to move its election entirely into postal balloting, after a series of COVID-19 outbreaks caused by new, highly infectious variants, throwing the pre-supposed result of a Liberal landslide into serious jeopardy.
The key takeaway here is: though the numbers may appear to be lining up for a spring election, getting from A to B isn’t always as easy as it seems. While it remains a possibility, we remain skeptical.
