The government continues to focus on COVID-19, but there is another compelling narrative bubbling up to the top of our newsfeeds. The environment and fighting climate change have always been a pillar of the Trudeau government’s agenda, and in the eyes of the Prime Minister, the post-pandemic recovery must be green. Minister Wilkinson’s recently announced clean growth strategy, “A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy”, highlights the government’s intention to incentivize Canadian industry towards sustainable growth to propel Canada to ‘build back better’, while U.S. President Joe Biden’s policy agenda marks a shift to a continental scale focus on addressing climate change. So where does this leave Canada’s Green Party? How have they been capitalizing on this renewed attention on their namesake policy plank? Apparently, they have been working the ground game and looking to build support in Canada’s urban centres.
The Green Party is developing an election strategy targeted at Canada’s major cities, hoping to capitalize on promising internal polling results that have them in second or third place with double-digit support in some key ridings. Based on recent polling from Abacus Data, that seems to ring true on the national level as well. If an election were to take place now, current voting intentions put the Greens at 8% nationally (up 1.5 points).
David Colletto, CEO of Abacus Data, had this to say about the recent numbers, “First is the increase in vote share for the NDP and Greens. Back in November, 21% of decided voters said they would vote either NDP (15%) or Green (5%). Today, it is 27% (NDP 19%, Green 8%). The Liberals should be concerned about this as a weaker Conservative Party has not translated into a higher Liberal vote share. The Greens and NDP are finding wide support among younger Canadians (48% would vote either NDP or Green), a demographic critical to a future Liberal majority.”
Green party leader Annamie Paul seems to be lifting the party’s prospects in cities. If the Greens are going to make any headway in the next election, the timing could not be better for their priorities and policies to resonate with Canadians, especially with younger Canadians. Focusing on cities where there are more engaged young people who care more about environmental issues is a good political play. However, they won’t be the only party looking to garner support from that voter demographic.
Interestingly, the seats that the Greens are targeting to win in the GTA are currently held by the Liberals, not the NDP – recent reporting has suggested that the Greens are looking to compete for NDP seats. The NDP has the majority of its 24 seats in British Columbia, a province that has a strong allegiance to the environment and where the Green’s could potentially pick up seats.
Besides environmental policies, the Greens are cognizant that this pandemic has shone a light on the socio-economic cracks that exist in Canada’s social safety net. The party is also focusing on policies to help vulnerable populations and talking about issues like universal basic income, a national housing strategy, homelessness and long-term care homes. These types of policies could tug away at some of the support that traditionally goes to the NDP.
If the Green party is going to have any traction in the next federal election, they have to fight hard to get their message out to those younger voters who care about protecting the planet. Elizabeth May’s leadership helped the party break into the mainstream but fell short of an electoral breakthrough in 2019. Green party activists have high hopes that Ms. Paul can shore up more support among progressvie urban voters whenever the next election is called.
The party is turning its attention to nominating star candidates to run in targeted ridings. Annamie Paul, who has yet to be elected to the House of Commons, is signalling that the people she wants surrounding her have to reflect the party’s values and be known entities in their communities. These diamonds-in-the-rough are sometimes hard to find and the Greens desperately need high profile community leaders to bolster their credentials and take the party to the next level nationally.
The Greens also have to maintain their base in B.C., southern Ontario, P.E.I., and New Brunswick before they can really take on the big red ridings in Toronto and elsewhere. They need to find ways to create a bigger buzz around what they stand for and how they anticipate digging the country out of this economic slump. A tough task for a party that only has three seats in the House of Commons.
