Spring is arriving with good news for Canadians. On top of days getting longer (and occasionally warmer), two new vaccines have been approved, adding to our national arsenal in the fight against COVID-19. The recent developments are giving hope that we’re nearing an end to the pandemic. And, at the same time, creating new challenges for decision-makers in Ottawa and the provincial capitals alike.
The National Advisory Committee on Immunization has given its blessing to space out the two-doses required by some vaccines by up to 16 weeks. Buoyed by this news, most provinces are adjusting vaccination schedules and announcing that all willing adults should receive at least their first dose by the middle of the summer. Assuming this approach is successful, the more optimistic scenarios beg new questions from a beleaguered population.
One of the most important questions is: what levels of vaccination will lead to herd immunity that will bring forth changes in public health guidance? In Ontario, a ‘What We Know So Far’ document from Public Health Ontario, published in January, gives some clues. Herd immunity can be achieved through vaccination or widespread infection and recoveries; when every infected person passes the infection on to less than one person on average. The same document estimates that to achieve herd immunity in Ontario, 56-89% of the population will require vaccination.
As the risk of COVID-19 persists in communities, the scope of that risk will change significantly in the coming months. Even without achieving full herd immunity, the likelihood of outbreaks and a high-mortality rate will begin to dissipate as observed in other countries where vaccination rates have soared. To date, governments have acted with a high degree of reliance on public health officials but the temptation to diverge from public health guidance will only grow. At the same time, pressure to re-open will mount from businesses and associations hard hit by the pandemic. Knowing when to safely reopen, and what low or lower-risk activities should be permitted will be a difficult process for governments. On a region-by-region, sector-by-sector, and demographic basis the balance will be hard to quantify. Energy will have to be focused on ensuring some consistency, while demand for exceptions to these rules grows daily.
The next most important question for decision-makers to consider is: will Canadians listen? In recent memory, the legalization of recreational cannabis stands out as an enforcement challenge for months ahead of the new rules coming into force. That change was signalled by a hard date, but behaviours changed months and even years in advance of legalization. Unlicensed stores operated with impunity in many communities and smokers sparked up in public places without a care in the summer of 2018. With vaccine distribution now well underway, attitudes may begin to shift as Canadians’ pandemic fatigue drags on.
If people feel their own risk is lower, the risk of spreading COVID-19 to vulnerable populations has subsided, and yet they continue to be inconvenienced in their daily lives, that will spell trouble for enforcing measures across the country.
Throughout the pandemic, different rules have been in place in areas where prevalence has been high, but the sense of risk has kept most people in line. As that wanes, local officials will face the biggest challenges. They may not have borders to close, vaccines to order, or as many business support programs to fund, but they will have an increasingly important role to play in managing an orderly exit from this pandemic, as Canadians rush for the doors.
