Won’t You Be My Neighbour?

4 minute read

Canada’s relationship with the Trump Administration could perhaps be best described as rocky. With a new President in the White House (and one more ideologically aligned to the Trudeau Liberals), there is renewed optimism for Canada’s relationship with the United States. Just a few days post-inauguration, it is clear there are some rocky waters still to navigate. 

Now onto his third administration, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has become an expert in managing thorny issues with our biggest trading partner. That experience will be necessary in the weeks and months ahead, as issues around trade, travel and energy infrastructure are set to dominate the North American political agenda. Trudeau has not managed this relationship alone, and is unlikely to do so moving forward; Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and newly minted Global Affairs Minister Marc Garneau will also play a big role in reaching out to the Biden team. The “Team Canada” approach honed during the Trump years was a successful one, and Canadians should expect a similar approach moving forward – even as Biden is using early days to advance U.S. interests with mixed results for Canada. 

President Biden’s decision to follow through on his campaign promise to cancel the permit for Keystone XL is the inaugural issue thrust upon Canada’s government and diplomatic team from the new administration. The pace of this may be surprising, but the overall decision to nix the pipeline shouldn’t be. Canada’s Ambassador to the United States Kirsten Hillman said she has been working on this issue for months, but noted the matter is effectively now settled, with the U.S. unlikely to reverse their decision. Trudeau echoed Hillman’s comments, acknowledging disappointment with the decision, but also noted the opportunity for collaboration on environmental and climate issues. 

Given the diplomatic efforts to protect Canada’s economic interests in the steel, softwood lumber, and manufacturing industries, oil and gas proponents will continue to criticize Trudeau for not giving Keystone the same treatment. That will cause some short term pain for Trudeau, particularly in the West. Once the current barrage of criticism subsides, don’t expect Team Trudeau to expend further political capital on the failed pipeline. If pressure is likely to continue around Keystone, expect that to come from Western Premiers and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, rather than the Prime Minister’s Office, which is keen to move on to pursuing shared objectives with the Biden Team.   

What are those shared objectives? Trudeau was quick to highlight these issues following his phone call with the new President on Friday. Collaboration on climate action and managing the COVID-19 pandemic top the list, as do shared commitments around defence and security. The sentiments raised by Trudeau in last Friday’s press conference were fleshed out in the Prime Minister’s Office readout on the Friday evening Trudeau–Biden call – the new President’s first with a foreign leader.

The readout is a communications product issued by the Prime Minister’s Office, not an unfilter account of what was mentioned on the call, but it illustrates Trudeau’s position on a number of top bilateral issues. The readout prioritized working together to end the COVID-19 pandemic including collaboration on vaccines and cross border flow of “medical supplies.” It mentioned that the leaders agreed on strengthening supply chain security and resilience and the need to “consult closely to avoid measures that may constrain bilateral trade, supply chains and economic growth.” The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to Paris Agreement targets and agreed to work together on net-zero emissions, zero emissions vehicles, clean electricity transmission across the border and on protecting the Arctic. The document also highlighted shared interests in collaborating on the world stage including continental defence, modernizing NORAD, and a commitment to multilateral institutions and alliances. 

The Prime Minister raised cross border issues on the call, highlighting the economic consequences of duties on softwood lumber and the decision to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline permit. Although it was not a surprise, the Keystone cancellation on Biden’s first day was a hit to Canada, but according to a government official who spoke to the Star Friday it might be the last economic hit by the U.S. on Canada at least for a while. The unnamed official said the U.S. administration does not intend to deliver another economic hit to Canada and that the anticipated “buy American” provisions for U.S. government procurement are not intended to impact Canada. Garneau clarified over the weekend that Biden gave no guarantee to Trudeau during their call but vowed to work with Canada over the anticipated new provisions. If Biden gives Canada a pass on buy American, it’s a big win for Trudeau’s team–perhaps those months-long conversations over Keystone XL mentioned by Hillman were fruitful after all.  

The two leaders agreed to meet again next month and to schedule a meeting between foreign affairs and defence ministers and secretaries at the earliest opportunity. 

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