While the House of Commons is only set to resume sitting today, federal political watchers and pundits haven’t hesitated to speculate on the likelihood and timing of a federal election. This election speculation comes with a backdrop of a relentless and quickening second wave of COVID-19, a rocky start to the vaccine distribution roll-out, continued troubling economic news, and a just-now settled highly-fraught US Presidential election. The 44th federal election is officially scheduled to take place on or before October 16, 2023, but given Parliament’s minority makeup, most election watchers agree it will be ‘before’. The government has also put wheels in motion around the necessary steps to safely hold an election during COVID. The question now is about timing; are we heading to the ballot box in the spring, or fall?
Several factors would suggest that a spring election seems inevitable. First, recent polls put the Prime Minister and the Liberal party in striking distance of a majority government. It’s dangerous to rely on a data point that captures a single point in time but politics is about timing and you need to strike while the iron is hot. Second, at a human resources level, Liberal staffers are leaving government, election platform chairs have been appointed for each of the major parties, Cabinet Ministers are being asked whether they are in or out, and candidates are being nominated (some are even accepting applications). Finally, the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP are all holding their respective policy conventions before mid-April, just ahead of when an expected Spring election could be called (seems like more than a coincidence at this stage). There’s even some pre-election spending being conducted by outside groups to begin framing one of the Party leaders.
Even if the Prime Minister does want an election, which he’s repeatedly said he doesn’t (but also said he’s expecting one), how easy is it to engineer one? The short answer is: not very. It seems the Conservatives and BQ are eager to hit the hustings, which leaves the NDP with the balance of power. But to have all three parties oppose the government, the Liberals would have to insert a so-called ‘poison pill’ in Budget 2021 to ensure the NDP votes against it, thereby undermining their election strategy of attracting soft NDP voters. And even with a ‘poison pill’, would the NDP really vote against a Budget that includes a significant investment towards universal childcare, something Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland all but guaranteed? Or real movement on the Pharmacare file? Or a $100B economic growth plan? Even if they claimed the Fall Economic Statement was setting up for future austerity, and with news that they’ve finally dug themselves out of campaign debt, a move like that could be political suicide.
Assuming the Prime Minister can engineer an election this Spring – should he? We’ve seen that it’s possible to hold a COVID-election, and that voters are seeking stability during these tumultuous times, but the logistics of a federal election at the height of a second wave are more complex than provincial contests. The Prime Minister no doubt needs to reflect carefully on whether it is in the best interest of Canadians’ health to hold an election soon, as Parliament has (generally) functioned well so far without one. Complicating matters further, the recent news of delays in the delivery of vaccines and the sudden resignation of the Governor-General, in a minority Parliament, adds additional doubt into whether the Prime Minister should, and could, go to the polls.
As far as public opinion is concerned, Canadians don’t seem very keen on an election at the moment. Though frankly, that sentiment tends to fade once the election is underway, and as we saw in British Columbia, doesn’t necessarily have a bearing on the outcome. In fact, the government may benefit from its incumbent position as they look to increase their seat count and obtain a majority mandate.
So, as it often is with consequential decisions, nothing is straightforward. Maybe we’ll get a better sense of how things will unfold once the House of Commons returns. Or maybe the Prime Minister should make like Bernie and simply bundle up, cross his legs and wait.
