While the Liberals have been grabbing headlines in recent weeks for all the wrong reasons, the Conservative Party of Canada’s leadership has ratcheted up from simmer to boil with just over one week remaining in the months long contest.
While many had predicted at the outset the race was MacKay’s to lose, the contest has been far from a coronation. The “true blue” campaign mounted by Erin O’Toole has posed a threat to MacKay, with the most recent round of fundraising data showing O’Toole has actually brought in more money than the former Progressive Conservative Party leader. Meanwhile, Leslyn Lewis has exceeded many expectations by more than doubling her fundraising totals from earlier this year.
Despite O’Toole’s strong financial quarter, many suggest MacKay maintains a slight edge, with a majority of Conservative voters believing he will be crowned the victor later this month. A question mark hanging over MacKay is what his victory may mean for the future of the Conservative Party, specifically for western Canadian conservatives who are growing restless. With a number of high profile endorsements from Alberta flowing to Erin O’Toole, it’s no secret that some Westerners are skeptical of how “true blue” MacKay is.
Not helping the unity discussion, some current members of the Conservative caucus have mused publicly about the threat a MacKay victory would pose for party unity. Most Conservatives don’t want to see a repeat of 2017, where the lingering acrimony from a bitterly contested leadership race between Andrew Scheer and Maxime Bernier saw Bernier later quit the CPC to start his own party. Though the People’s Party won no seats and just 1.6% percent of the vote in the 2019 election, it served as an unwelcome distraction for the Tories. Berner’s party siphoning resources and attention, forcing Scheer to defend attacks from both his left and right during the campaign.
Further complicating matters is the arrival of the Wexit Party, which received approval to run candidates in the next election back in January. The party’s new leader, Jay Hill, a longtime Conservative strategist and former MP from British Columbia. Hill is viewed as a serious and credible political operator, who could build bridges with the western base of the party, many of whom may not be too enthralled with a MacKay victory. Our colleagues at Abacus Data found that the Wexit Party could pose serious problems for the Conservatives, with 16% of CPC supporters in favour of western separation.
Particularly if the final vote is close, the most immediate challenge facing Nova Scotia’s MacKay will be how he intends to keep Westerners and social Conservatives happy and together heading into the future. It’s a challenge that will have to be met quickly; the urgency of a minority parliament necessitates that the new leader will have to hit the ground running. In addition to staffing up their office, the new leader will also likely want to make some changes to the front bench, with shadow cabinet portfolios being doled out to reward supporters and mend fences with previous rivals. It will also be critical for the new leader to get down to branding, and that will mean building a policy platform for what the next iteration of the Conservative Party is going to be about. Key questions like how to approach the environment, justice reform and social issues remain unresolved debates within the party.Final ballots for the leadership contest are due in to CPC HQ on August 21st, with a count to proceed immediately and a final announcement to be made in the subsequent days. If it is as close as has been suggested, it will certainly be one to watch.
