Time is ticking for a decision from the Conservative Party’s Leadership Election Organizing Committee (LEOC) to provide a timeline on when – or if – the Party’s leadership race will restart. The race, which has been formally suspended since late March, has been notably quiet beyond a few emails and tweets here and there (some more misguided than others). As pressure mounts to announce the future of the race quickly, the person who may be most keen to hear this decision is the Tories current leader Andrew Scheer, who undoubtedly did not think he would be in the chair this long, let alone during a major pandemic.
Considering Scheer is effectively a placeholder, it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the leader since he announced his decision to resign this past winter. Some notable conservative columnists, including John Ivison and Andrew MacDougall, have observed that the COVID-19 crisis has exposed and exacerbated Andrew Scheer’s leadership shortcomings, which in turn are emblematic of the challenge operating under the yolk of a lame duck leader.
From a messaging and discipline standpoint, it’s clear the Tories are struggling to find a coherent communications strategy under the interim leadership of Scheer. MPs tried to create a (now debunked) spending scandal at Harrington Lake, threw their support behind unproven COVID-19 treatments touted by US President Donald Trump, and made a failed attempt to increase the number of in-person sessions at the House of Commons despite social distancing orders that was criticized by other members of the opposition. Message discipline is doubly important during a crisis, when far more Canadians than normal are looking to Parliament for solutions. But it takes strong leadership and a clear strategy in order to get caucus into alignment, both of which appear to be lacking in the federal Conservative camp lately.
The mishandling of Conservative Leadership candidate Derek Sloan’s bigoted attack against Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam, questioning her loyalty to Canada and touting other conspiratorial claims about China and the WHO, are emblematic of these problems. In a now familiar pattern, Scheer waited almost a week before public criticism finally forced him to weigh in and rebuke Sloan’s comments – yet another distraction amid what should be a big opportunity for the Official Opposition. The more of these distractions that emerge, the harder it is for the Tories to get their message out, and the more difficult it is to get genuine criticisms of the government’s response to COVID-19 to land.
According to our colleagues at Abacus Data, Canadians are showing few signs of buyer’s remorse with the Liberals having opened up an 8-point lead over the Conservatives in national polls. Even more problematic for the CPC, is that the Liberals maintain big leads in Ontario and Quebec – provinces that proved the difference makers yet again in the 2019 Election. That said, conservatives elsewhere in Canada are faring well during the pandemic, with right-leaning Premiers enjoying high approval ratings. It may be worthwhile for Scheer and the federal Conservative team to consider what these leaders may be doing right, and how they could replicate this success at the national level.
And if the public opinion data wasn’t enough to convince Conservatives it is not a good time to go to the polls, fundraising data may be. Canada’s political parties are not immune to the challenges facing charities and non-profits in Canada. Donations are down across the board, with some estimates suggesting that the Canadian charitable sector could see financial losses between $9.5 billion and $15.7 billion depending on the length of the crisis. As Canadians tighten their belt straps to adjust to these difficult times, those small one-off political donations will be harder to land. Pass-the-hat small town fundraisers are also off the table with social distancing measures. As well, the Conservatives (and Greens) are the only parties with interim leaders, and it is always a challenge to convince donors to spend when they don’t know who or what they are buying into. While the Conservatives have typically enjoyed a fundraising edge over their competitors, refilling the war chest in the post-COVID world would be easier with a new leader in place.
But even if an election is unlikely soon, it’s never too far away in a minority. The Leadership Election Organizing Committee will be acutely aware of this fact, and given the past few fumbles, will be sensitive to the argument that a permanent leader can’t come soon enough.